Forecast Models

tornado probabılıty

haıl probabılıty

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

SUPERCELL PROBABILITY

RISK CATEGORIES AND OUTLOOK DEFINITIONS

  • Marginal: Limited in duration and/or coverage and/or intensity.
  • Slight: Short-lived and/or not widespread isolated intensity possible.
  • Enhanced: More persistent and/or widespread a few intense.
  • Moderate: Long-lived and widespread and intense.
  • High: Long-lived very widespread and particularly intense.

The above explanations provide fundamental information about the severity of the mentioned weather event. The lowest limits of severe weather products through determining different sources are as follows. diameter of 2 cm (ISSL) for large hail and speed of 50 knot for severe wind (Bluestein, 2013).

When the probabilities exceed 10%, the parameters can be considered as “significant severe”, depending on environmental conditions. These risk categories are tied to the probability of a severe weather event within 40 km of a specific location.